Bitcoin's Halving Rally Cycle is Dead: Analyst
CryptoNewsTerminal Staff03 Sep, 2024
Bitcoin's Halving Rally Cycle is Dead: Analyst
Keywords: Bitcoin, Halving, Rally, Cycle, Dead Summary: According to Outlier Ventures' head of research, Jasper De Maere, the post-halving rally in Bitcoin's price is a thing of the past. An analysis of historical data reveals that the price has declined 8% since the last halving, compared to an average gain of 22% in previous cycles. Maere argues that the halving's impact on the block reward scale for miners has diminished since 2016, leading to a reduced influence on Bitcoin's price. Despite some arguments that the halving cycle model remains valid, Maere maintains that the pre-halving rally has already occurred. He points to the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in January as a catalyst for demand, suggesting that it triggered a premature rally. Additionally, this is the first cycle where Bitcoin's price has fallen 125 days after the halving. Meaning for Investors: De Maere's analysis suggests that investors should not rely on the halving as a reliable indicator of Bitcoin's future price movements. Instead, they should consider a wider range of factors, including market sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements, when making investment decisions.
